Methodology & Governance

Trust is a system property.

HORUS methodology is designed to make authority, context and uncertainty explicit — so a polished interface never overstates what the research actually knows.

01

Daily20 is the primary authority

The Daily 20TD research signal is the sole authority for NORMAL / WATCH / CONFIRMED Daily state.

02

Raw score is not a probability

HORUS never appends a percent sign to a raw research score or markets it as calibrated likelihood.

03

Daily10 corroborates only

The 10TD challenger can support a 20TD WATCH; it cannot create a standalone alert.

04

Macro is structural context

Macro freshness and structural fundamentals can explain background conditions but never gate, suppress or create Daily alerts.

05

Events explain — not prove cause

Event families provide context, corroboration and explainability without claiming causal attribution.

06

Human review over automation

This release is research decision support. Automated external production alerting is not approved.

07

Data boundaries stay visible

Each engine keeps its own timestamp and evidence boundary. V1 remains a frozen historical research snapshot through 2025-12-31.

08

Production selection remains open

No final production model has been selected. Calibration is not production approved.

FAQ

Common methodology questions

HORUS reports a research early-warning state — NORMAL, WATCH or CONFIRMED — derived from the Daily 20TD signal. It is a decision-support state for human review, not an automated alert and not a probability.
No. The Daily raw score is an internal model stress score. HORUS does not publish crisis probabilities and never converts the raw score into a percentage probability.
The current release serves a development research dataset covering 2020-04-26 through 2025-12-31. Observations are labelled as the latest available research observation, not live national intelligence.
Macro indicators provide structural context only, and geopolitical/event data provides context, corroboration and explainability only. Neither changes the Daily operational state.
Quarterly billing applies a 10% discount to the monthly price (monthly × 3 × 0.90). Yearly billing applies 25% (monthly × 12 × 0.75). Prices are calculated by the platform, never hard-coded.
Institutional access begins with a verification and sales review process — request access, verification, commercial review, contract and activation. There is no retail checkout for institutions.
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