HORUS V2 · Intelligence Hub

Automated data. Egypt-first intelligence.

This development view is powered by HORUS V2 backend services. Every operational value is backend-supplied or explicitly unavailable.

V1 baseline: HORUS-V1-FINAL

Declared sources

Connected now

Operating principle

Automation first

No source is labelled live without a working connector.

National Intelligence Command View · V2

Independent engines. One traceable operating picture.

Daily, Macro and Event remain separate; HORUS does not collapse them into one probability.

Daily · V1 frozen authority

NORMAL

2025-12-31

Macro · V2 research

0.516

0.443

Event · V2 sensing

prioritized event signals

What changed?

Event signal count changed from 2 to 0.

Data Catalog

Source connectivity

macro egypt

Central Bank of Egypt — macro and monetary indicators

declared

Central Bank of Egypt · publication-driven

macro egypt

CAPMAS — inflation, labor and national statistics

declared

CAPMAS · publication-driven

government

Egypt Ministry of Finance — fiscal and debt publications

declared

Egypt Ministry of Finance · publication-driven

macro egypt

World Bank economic indicators

degraded

World Bank · source-driven

macro egypt

IMF macroeconomic indicators

declared

International Monetary Fund · source-driven

events

GDELT global event intelligence

degraded

GDELT Project · near-real-time target

geospatial

NASA FIRMS fire observations

declared

NASA · source-driven

geospatial

Copernicus Sentinel observations

declared

Copernicus / ESA · orbit / product availability

Egypt Macro · World Bank

Latest published observations

Macro connector unavailable or waiting for its first successful fetch.

Publication-driven observations are source data, not a HORUS prediction and not a live current-state claim.

Egypt Event Sensor · GDELT

Recent machine-detected coverage

Top Egypt-relevant economic, logistics, energy, investment and geopolitical signals after automated relevance filtering.

Event connector unavailable or no matching coverage returned.

Detected articles are event signals only; they are not causal findings, verified crisis declarations, or automatic policy recommendations.

Official Source Expansion · V2

Egypt-first official source readiness

A reachable publication page is not labelled as normalized data unless usable values are actually returned.

reachable publication

Central Bank of Egypt

official exchange rate publication

degraded

capmas

connector

reachable publication

Egypt Ministry of Finance

official monthly financial report availability

connected data

International Monetary Fund

official macro timeseries

Event Intelligence Engine · V2

What matters — and how could it reach Egypt?

HORUS classifies the strongest Egypt-relevant event signals, ranks their research importance, and maps potential economic transmission channels without treating a headline as a causal finding.

Signals: 0

No Event Intelligence signals passed the current relevance filter.

Importance is a prioritization score, not a probability of crisis or impact magnitude. Classification confidence is an evidence-strength index, not a probability. Impact channels are potential transmission paths for research, not verified causal effects or policy recommendations.

Evidence & Corroboration · V2

How strong is the evidence behind each event?

Classification confidence and evidence confidence are separate. A clear headline can still be only a single-source signal.

No corroboration snapshot available yet.

Evidence confidence is a corroboration-strength index, not an event probability.

Egypt Impact Engine · V2

Through which channels could an event affect Egypt?

No Egypt impact assessment available yet.

Macro Early Warning · V2 Research

What may be forming ahead?

Separate 3-month and 6-month early-warning models compare the latest available macro feature state with historical pre-stress patterns.

Observation: 2026-07-31

3M horizon

Looks for historical pre-stress patterns that tended to appear closer to a macro stress onset.

6M horizon

Looks further ahead for broader structural patterns that historically preceded macro stress.

How to read the score

Higher means stronger historical resemblance. It is a research score — not a crisis probability.

3-Month Horizon

0.516

Raw research model score · 0–1

Research

Top model signals

Loan Deposit Spread ↓ 0.74

Current Account Change 12M USD Million ↑ 0.60

Credit Deposit Growth Gap 12M ↑ 0.56

FX Deposit Share Change 3M Pct Points ↑ 0.53

Reserves to External Debt Pct ↑ 0.20

Walk-forward PR-AUC

0.480

Recall @ 0.50*

0.875

6-Month Horizon

0.443

Raw research model score · 0–1

Research

Top model signals

Loan Deposit Spread ↓ 0.90

Credit Deposit Growth Gap 12M ↑ 0.67

Current Account Change 12M USD Million ↑ 0.58

Reserves to External Debt Pct ↑ 0.28

External Debt Growth 12M Pct ↑ 0.14

Walk-forward PR-AUC

0.470

Recall @ 0.50*

0.786

These values are research model scores, not calibrated probabilities of crisis. The 0.50 cut shown in validation metrics is descriptive only and is not an approved alert threshold. V1 remains unchanged; 2026 target outcomes are not used to train or select these V2 models.